[SFdS] Information du groupe BFA
WG Risk - Thursday, April 29, 2021 - Renata G. ALCOFORADO

Dear All,

We have the pleasure, thanks to the support of the ESSEC IDS dpt, Institut des Actuaires, LabEx MME-DII, the group BFA of SFdS, and all ARLES (Aging Risks and their Long-term impact on the Economy and Society research project) partners to invite:

Renata G. ALCOFORADO
ISEG & CEMAPRE, Universidade de Lisboa (Portugal)
& Federal University of Pernambuco (Brazil)

Date and place: Thursday, April 29, at 12:30 pm (Paris) and 6:30 pm (Singapore)
To participate in the Working Group (via Zoom), please click here
Password/Code : WGRisk
.

“ A public micro pension programme in Brazil: Heterogeneity among states and setting up of benefit age adjustment "

Brazil is the 5-th largest country in the world, despite having a “High Human Development” it is the 9-th most unequal country. The existing Brazilian micro pension programme is one of the safety nets for poor people. To become eligible for this benefit, each person must have an income that is less than a quarter of the Brazilian minimum monthly wage and be either over 65 years old or considered disabled. That minimum income corresponds to approximately US $2 per day. This paper analyses quantitatively some aspects of this programme in the Brazilian Public Pension System. We look for the impact of some particular economic variables on the number of people receiving the benefit, and seek if that impact significantly differs among the 27 Brazilian Federal Units (UF). We search for heterogeneity. We perform regression and spatial cluster analysis searching for detection of geographical grouping. We use a database that includes the entire population that receives the benefit. Afterwards, we calculate the amount that the system spends with the beneficiaries, estimate values per capita and the weight of each UF, searching for heterogeneity reflected on the amount spent per capita. In this latter calculation we use a more comprehensive database, by individual, that includes all people that started receiving a benefit under the programme in the period from the 2nd of January 2018 to the 6th of April 2018. We compute the expected discounted benefit and confirm a high heterogeneity among UF's as well as gender. We propose achieving a more equitable system by introducing ‘age adjusting factors’ to change the benefit age. This is a joint work with Alfredo D. Egidio dos Reis.

Kind regards,
Jeremy Heng, Olga Klopp and Marie Kratz
http://crear.essec.edu/working-group-on-risk
and Riada Djebbar (Singapore Actuarial Society - ERM)

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